Local buffer mechanisms for population persistence.

Assessing and predicting the persistence of populations is essential for the conservation and control of species. Here, we argue that local mechanisms require a better conceptual synthesis to facilitate a more holistic consideration along with regional mechanisms known from metapopulation theory. We summarise the evidence for local buffer mechanisms along with their capacities and emphasise the need to include multiple buffer mechanisms in studies of population persistence. We propose an accessible framework for local buffer mechanisms that distinguishes between damping (reducing fluctuations in population size) and repelling (reducing population declines) mechanisms. We highlight opportunities for empirical and modelling studies to investigate the interactions and capacities of buffer mechanisms to facilitate better ecological understanding in times of ecological upheaval.

Recruitment and migration patterns reveal a key role for seed banks in the meta-population dynamics of an aquatic plant.

Progressive habitat fragmentation threatens plant species with narrow habitat requirements. While local environmental conditions define population growth rates and recruitment success at the patch level, dispersal is critical for population viability at the landscape scale. Identifying the dynamics of plant meta-populations is often confounded by the uncertainty about soil-stored population compartments. We combined a landscape-scale assessment of an amphibious plant's population structure with measurements of dispersal complexity in time to track dispersal and putative shifts in functional connectivity. Using 13 microsatellite markers, we analyzed the genetic structure of extant Oenanthe aquatica populations and their soil seed banks in a kettle hole system to uncover hidden connectivity among populations in time and space. Considerable spatial genetic structure and isolation-by-distance suggest limited gene flow between sites. Spatial isolation and patch size showed minor effects on genetic diversity. Genetic similarity found among extant populations and their seed banks suggests increased local recruitment, despite some evidence of migration and recent colonization. Results indicate stepping-stone dispersal across adjacent populations. Among permanent and ephemeral demes the resulting meta-population demography could be determined by source-sink dynamics. Overall, these spatiotemporal connectivity patterns support mainland-island dynamics in our system, highlighting the importance of persistent seed banks as enduring sources of genetic diversity.

Evaluating expert-based habitat suitability information of terrestrial mammals with GPS-tracking data.

Aim: Macroecological studies that require habitat suitability data for many species often derive this information from expert opinion. However, expert-based information is inherently subjective and thus prone to errors. The increasing availability of GPS tracking data offers opportunities to evaluate and supplement expert-based information with detailed empirical evidence. Here, we compared expert-based habitat suitability information from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) with habitat suitability information derived from GPS-tracking data of 1,498 individuals from 49 mammal species. Location: Worldwide. Time period: 1998-2021. Major taxa studied: Forty-nine terrestrial mammal species. Methods: Using GPS data, we estimated two measures of habitat suitability for each individual animal: proportional habitat use (proportion of GPS locations within a habitat type), and selection ratio (habitat use relative to its availability). For each individual we then evaluated whether the GPS-based habitat suitability measures were in agreement with the IUCN data. To that end, we calculated the probability that the ranking of empirical habitat suitability measures was in agreement with IUCN's classification into suitable, marginal and unsuitable habitat types. Results: IUCN habitat suitability data were in accordance with the GPS data (> 95% probability of agreement) for 33 out of 49 species based on proportional habitat use estimates and for 25 out of 49 species based on selection ratios. In addition, 37 and 34 species had a > 50% probability of agreement based on proportional habitat use and selection ratios, respectively. Main conclusions: We show how GPS-tracking data can be used to evaluate IUCN habitat suitability data. Our findings indicate that for the majority of species included in this study, it is appropriate to use IUCN habitat suitability data in macroecological studies. Furthermore, we show that GPS-tracking data can be used to identify and prioritize species and habitat types for re-evaluation of IUCN habitat suitability data.

Insectivorous bats form mobile sensory networks to optimize prey localization: The case of the common noctule bat.

Animals that depend on ephemeral, patchily distributed prey often use public information to locate resource patches. The use of public information can lead to the aggregation of foragers at prey patches, a mechanism known as local enhancement. However, when ephemeral resources are distributed over large areas, foragers may also need to increase search efficiency, and thus apply social strategies when sampling the landscape. While sensory networks of visually oriented animals have already been confirmed, we lack an understanding of how acoustic eavesdropping adds to the formation of sensory networks. Here we radio-tracked a total of 81 aerial-hawking bats at very high spatiotemporal resolution during five sessions over 3 y, recording up to 19 individuals simultaneously. Analyses of interactive flight behavior provide conclusive evidence that bats form temporary mobile sensory networks by adjusting their movements to neighboring conspecifics while probing the airspace for prey. Complementary agent-based simulations confirmed that the observed movement patterns can lead to the formation of mobile sensory networks, and that bats located prey faster when networking than when relying only on local enhancement or searching solitarily. However, the benefit of networking diminished with decreasing group size. The combination of empirical analyses and simulations elucidates how animal groups use acoustic information to efficiently locate unpredictable and ephemeral food patches. Our results highlight that declining local populations of social foragers may thus suffer from Allee effects that increase the risk of collapses under global change scenarios, like insect decline and habitat degradation.

Agricultural buffer zone thresholds to safeguard functional bee diversity: Insights from a community modeling approach.

Wild bee species are important pollinators in agricultural landscapes. However, population decline was reported over the last decades and is still ongoing. While agricultural intensification is a major driver of the rapid loss of pollinating species, transition zones between arable fields and forest or grassland patches, i.e., agricultural buffer zones, are frequently mentioned as suitable mitigation measures to support wild bee populations and other pollinator species. Despite the reported general positive effect, it remains unclear which amount of buffer zones is needed to ensure a sustainable and permanent impact for enhancing bee diversity and abundance. To address this question at a pollinator community level, we implemented a process-based, spatially explicit simulation model of functional bee diversity dynamics in an agricultural landscape. More specifically, we introduced a variable amount of agricultural buffer zones (ABZs) at the transition of arable to grassland, or arable to forest patches to analyze the impact on bee functional diversity and functional richness. We focused our study on solitary bees in a typical agricultural area in the Northeast of Germany. Our results showed positive effects with at least 25% of virtually implemented agricultural buffer zones. However, higher amounts of ABZs of at least 75% should be considered to ensure a sufficient increase in Shannon diversity and decrease in quasi-extinction risks. These high amounts of ABZs represent effective conservation measures to safeguard the stability of pollination services provided by solitary bee species. As the model structure can be easily adapted to other mobile species in agricultural landscapes, our community approach offers the chance to compare the effectiveness of conservation measures also for other pollinator communities in future.

Pollinator guilds respond contrastingly at different scales to landscape parameters of land-use intensity.

Land-use intensification is the main factor for the catastrophic decline of insect pollinators. However, land-use intensification includes multiple processes that act across various scales and should affect pollinator guilds differently depending on their ecology. We aimed to reveal how two main pollinator guilds, wild bees and hoverflies, respond to different land-use intensification measures, that is, arable field cover (AFC), landscape heterogeneity (LH), and functional flower composition of local plant communities as a measure of habitat quality. We sampled wild bees and hoverflies on 22 dry grassland sites within a highly intensified landscape (NE Germany) within three campaigns using pan traps. We estimated AFC and LH on consecutive radii (60-3000 m) around the dry grassland sites and estimated the local functional flower composition. Wild bee species richness and abundance was positively affected by LH and negatively by AFC at small scales (140-400 m). In contrast, hoverflies were positively affected by AFC and negatively by LH at larger scales (500-3000 m), where both landscape parameters were negatively correlated to each other. At small spatial scales, though, LH had a positive effect on hoverfly abundance. Functional flower diversity had no positive effect on pollinators, but conspicuous flowers seem to attract abundance of hoverflies. In conclusion, landscape parameters contrarily affect two pollinator guilds at different scales. The correlation of landscape parameters may influence the observed relationships between landscape parameters and pollinators. Hence, effects of land-use intensification seem to be highly landscape-specific.

Fluctuations in Density-Dependent Selection Drive the Evolution of a Pace-of-Life Syndrome Within and Between Populations.

AbstractThe pace-of-life syndrome (POLS) hypothesis posits that suites of traits are correlated along a slow-fast continuum owing to life history trade-offs. Despite widespread adoption, environmental conditions driving the emergence of POLS remain unclear. A recently proposed conceptual framework of POLS suggests that a slow-fast continuum should align to fluctuations in density-dependent selection. We tested three key predictions made by this framework with an eco-evolutionary agent-based population model. Selection acted on responsiveness (behavioral trait) to interpatch resource differences and the reproductive investment threshold (life history trait). Across environments with density fluctuations of different magnitudes, we observed the emergence of a common axis of trait covariation between and within populations (i.e., the evolution of a POLS). Slow-type (fast-type) populations with high (low) responsiveness and low (high) reproductive investment threshold were selected at high (low) population densities and less (more) intense and frequent density fluctuations. In support of the predictions, fast-type populations contained a higher degree of variation in traits and were associated with higher intrinsic reproductive rate (r0) and higher sensitivity to intraspecific competition (γ), pointing to a universal trade-off. While our findings support that POLS aligns with density-dependent selection, we discuss possible mechanisms that may lead to alternative evolutionary pathways.

Big-data approaches lead to an increased understanding of the ecology of animal movement.

Understanding animal movement is essential to elucidate how animals interact, survive, and thrive in a changing world. Recent technological advances in data collection and management have transformed our understanding of animal "movement ecology" (the integrated study of organismal movement), creating a big-data discipline that benefits from rapid, cost-effective generation of large amounts of data on movements of animals in the wild. These high-throughput wildlife tracking systems now allow more thorough investigation of variation among individuals and species across space and time, the nature of biological interactions, and behavioral responses to the environment. Movement ecology is rapidly expanding scientific frontiers through large interdisciplinary and collaborative frameworks, providing improved opportunities for conservation and insights into the movements of wild animals, and their causes and consequences.

Adaptive and nonadaptive plasticity in changing environments: Implications for sexual species with different life history strategies.

Populations adapt to novel environmental conditions by genetic changes or phenotypic plasticity. Plastic responses are generally faster and can buffer fitness losses under variable conditions. Plasticity is typically modeled as random noise and linear reaction norms that assume simple one-to-one genotype-phenotype maps and no limits to the phenotypic response. Most studies on plasticity have focused on its effect on population viability. However, it is not clear, whether the advantage of plasticity depends solely on environmental fluctuations or also on the genetic and demographic properties (life histories) of populations. Here we present an individual-based model and study the relative importance of adaptive and nonadaptive plasticity for populations of sexual species with different life histories experiencing directional stochastic climate change. Environmental fluctuations were simulated using differentially autocorrelated climatic stochasticity or noise color, and scenarios of directional climate change. Nonadaptive plasticity was simulated as a random environmental effect on trait development, while adaptive plasticity as a linear, saturating, or sinusoidal reaction norm. The last two imposed limits to the plastic response and emphasized flexible interactions of the genotype with the environment. Interestingly, this assumption led to (a) smaller phenotypic than genotypic variance in the population (many-to-one genotype-phenotype map) and the coexistence of polymorphisms, and (b) the maintenance of higher genetic variation-compared to linear reaction norms and genetic determinism-even when the population was exposed to a constant environment for several generations. Limits to plasticity led to genetic accommodation, when costs were negligible, and to the appearance of cryptic variation when limits were exceeded. We found that adaptive plasticity promoted population persistence under red environmental noise and was particularly important for life histories with low fecundity. Populations producing more offspring could cope with environmental fluctuations solely by genetic changes or random plasticity, unless environmental change was too fast.

Trait means or variance-What determines plant species' local and regional occurrence in fragmented dry grasslands?

One of the few laws in ecology is that communities consist of few common and many rare taxa. Functional traits may help to identify the underlying mechanisms of this community pattern, since they correlate with different niche dimensions. However, comprehensive studies are missing that investigate the effects of species mean traits (niche position) and intraspecific trait variability (ITV, niche width) on species abundance. In this study, we investigated fragmented dry grasslands to reveal trait-occurrence relationships in plants at local and regional scales. We predicted that (a) at the local scale, species occurrence is highest for species with intermediate traits, (b) at the regional scale, habitat specialists have a lower species occurrence than generalists, and thus, traits associated with stress-tolerance have a negative effect on species occurrence, and (c) ITV increases species occurrence irrespective of the scale. We measured three plant functional traits (SLA = specific leaf area, LDMC = leaf dry matter content, plant height) at 21 local dry grassland communities (10 m × 10 m) and analyzed the effect of these traits and their variation on species occurrence. At the local scale, mean LDMC had a positive effect on species occurrence, indicating that stress-tolerant species are the most abundant rather than species with intermediate traits (hypothesis 1). We found limited support for lower specialist occurrence at the regional scale (hypothesis 2). Further, ITV of LDMC and plant height had a positive effect on local occurrence supporting hypothesis 3. In contrast, at the regional scale, plants with a higher ITV of plant height were less frequent. We found no evidence that the consideration of phylogenetic relationships in our analyses influenced our findings. In conclusion, both species mean traits (in particular LDMC) and ITV were differently related to species occurrence with respect to spatial scale. Therefore, our study underlines the strong scale-dependency of trait-abundance relationships.

While shoot herbivores reduce, root herbivores increase nutrient enrichment's impact on diversity in a grassland model.

Nutrient enrichment is widespread throughout grassland systems and expected to increase during the Anthropocene. Trophic interactions, like aboveground herbivory, have been shown to mitigate its effect on plant diversity. Belowground herbivory may also impact these habitats' response to nutrient enrichment, but its influence is much less understood, and likely to depend on factors such as the herbivores' preference for dominant species and the symmetry of belowground competition. If preferential toward the dominant, fastest growing species, root herbivores may reduce these species' relative fitness and support diversity during nutrient enrichment. However, as plant competition belowground is commonly considered to be symmetric, root herbivores may be less impactful than shoot herbivores because they do not reduce any competitive asymmetry between the dominant and subordinate plants. To better understand this system, we used an established, two-layer, grassland community model to run a full-factorially designed simulation experiment, crossing the complete removal of aboveground herbivores and belowground herbivores with nutrient enrichment. After 100 yr of simulation, we analyzed communities' diversity, competition on the individual level, as well as their resistance and recovery. The model reproduced both observed general effects of nutrient enrichment in grasslands and the short-term trends of specific experiments. We found that belowground herbivores exacerbate the negative influence of nutrient enrichment on Shannon diversity within our model grasslands, while aboveground herbivores mitigate its effect. Indeed, data on individuals' above- and belowground resource uptake reveals that root herbivory reduces resource limitation belowground. As with nutrient enrichment, this shifts competition aboveground. Since shoot competition is asymmetric, with larger, taller individuals gathering disproportionate resources compared to their smaller, shorter counterparts, this shift promotes the exclusion of the smallest species. While increasing the root herbivores' preferences toward dominant species lessens their negative impact, at best they are only mildly advantageous, and they do very little reduce the negative consequences of nutrient enrichment. Because our model's belowground competition is symmetric, we hypothesize that root herbivores may be beneficial when root competition is asymmetric. Future research into belowground herbivory should account for the nature of competition belowground to better understand the herbivores' true influence.

Early-life behaviour predicts first-year survival in a long-distance avian migrant.

Early-life conditions have critical, long-lasting effects on the fate of individuals, yet early-life activity has rarely been linked to subsequent survival of animals in the wild. Using high-resolution GPS and body-acceleration data of 93 juvenile white storks (Ciconia ciconia), we examined the links between behaviour during both pre-fledging and post-fledging (fledging-to-migration) periods and subsequent first-year survival. Juvenile daily activity (based on overall dynamic body acceleration) showed repeatable between-individual variation, the juveniles' pre- and post-fledging activity levels were correlated and both were positively associated with subsequent survival. Daily activity increased gradually throughout the post-fledging period, and the relationship between post-fledging activity and survival was stronger in individuals who increased their daily activity level faster (an interaction effect). We suggest that high activity profiles signified individuals with increased pre-migratory experience, higher individual quality and perhaps more proactive personality, which could underlie their superior survival rates. The duration of individuals' fledging-to-migration periods had a hump-shaped relationship with survival: higher survival was associated with intermediate rather than short or long durations. Short durations reflect lower pre-migratory experience, whereas very long ones were associated with slower increases in daily activity level which possibly reflects slow behavioural development. In accordance with previous studies, heavier nestlings and those that hatched and migrated earlier had increased survival. Using extensive tracking data, our study exposed new links between early-life attributes and survival, suggesting that early activity profiles in migrating birds can explain variation in first-year survival.

Movement-mediated community assembly and coexistence.

Organismal movement is ubiquitous and facilitates important ecological mechanisms that drive community and metacommunity composition and hence biodiversity. In most existing ecological theories and models in biodiversity research, movement is represented simplistically, ignoring the behavioural basis of movement and consequently the variation in behaviour at species and individual levels. However, as human endeavours modify climate and land use, the behavioural processes of organisms in response to these changes, including movement, become critical to understanding the resulting biodiversity loss. Here, we draw together research from different subdisciplines in ecology to understand the impact of individual-level movement processes on community-level patterns in species composition and coexistence. We join the movement ecology framework with the key concepts from metacommunity theory, community assembly and modern coexistence theory using the idea of micro-macro links, where various aspects of emergent movement behaviour scale up to local and regional patterns in species mobility and mobile-link-generated patterns in abiotic and biotic environmental conditions. These in turn influence both individual movement and, at ecological timescales, mechanisms such as dispersal limitation, environmental filtering, and niche partitioning. We conclude by highlighting challenges to and promising future avenues for data generation, data analysis and complementary modelling approaches and provide a brief outlook on how a new behaviour-based view on movement becomes important in understanding the responses of communities under ongoing environmental change.

Effects of body size on estimation of mammalian area requirements.

Accurately quantifying species' area requirements is a prerequisite for effective area-based conservation. This typically involves collecting tracking data on species of interest and then conducting home-range analyses. Problematically, autocorrelation in tracking data can result in space needs being severely underestimated. Based on the previous work, we hypothesized the magnitude of underestimation varies with body mass, a relationship that could have serious conservation implications. To evaluate this hypothesis for terrestrial mammals, we estimated home-range areas with global positioning system (GPS) locations from 757 individuals across 61 globally distributed mammalian species with body masses ranging from 0.4 to 4000 kg. We then applied block cross-validation to quantify bias in empirical home-range estimates. Area requirements of mammals <10 kg were underestimated by a mean approximately15%, and species weighing approximately100 kg were underestimated by approximately50% on average. Thus, we found area estimation was subject to autocorrelation-induced bias that was worse for large species. Combined with the fact that extinction risk increases as body mass increases, the allometric scaling of bias we observed suggests the most threatened species are also likely to be those with the least accurate home-range estimates. As a correction, we tested whether data thinning or autocorrelation-informed home-range estimation minimized the scaling effect of autocorrelation on area estimates. Data thinning required an approximately93% data loss to achieve statistical independence with 95% confidence and was, therefore, not a viable solution. In contrast, autocorrelation-informed home-range estimation resulted in consistently accurate estimates irrespective of mass. When relating body mass to home range size, we detected that correcting for autocorrelation resulted in a scaling exponent significantly >1, meaning the scaling of the relationship changed substantially at the upper end of the mass spectrum.

Efectos del Tamaño Corporal sobre la Estimación de los Requerimientos de Área de Mamíferos Resumen La cuantificación precisa de los requerimientos de área de una especie es un prerrequisito para que la conservación basada en áreas sea efectiva. Esto comúnmente implica la recolección de datos de rastreo de la especie de interés para después realizar análisis de la distribución local. De manera problemática, la autocorrelación en los datos de rastreo puede resultar en una subestimación grave de las necesidades de espacio. Con base en trabajos previos, formulamos una hipótesis en la que supusimos que la magnitud de la subestimación varía con la masa corporal, una relación que podría tener implicaciones serias para la conservación. Para probar esta hipótesis en mamíferos terrestres, estimamos las áreas de distribución local con las ubicaciones en GPS de 757 individuos de 61 especies de mamíferos distribuidas mundialmente con una masa corporal entre 0.4 y 4,000 kg. Después aplicamos una validación cruzada en bloque para cuantificar el sesgo en estimaciones empíricas de la distribución local. Los requerimientos de área de los mamíferos <10 kg fueron subestimados por una media ∼15% y las especies con una masa ∼100 kg fueron subestimadas en ∼50% en promedio. Por lo tanto, encontramos que la estimación del área estaba sujeta al sesgo inducido por la autocorrelación, el cual era peor para las especies de talla grande. En combinación con el hecho de que el riesgo de extinción incrementa conforme aumenta la masa corporal, el escalamiento alométrico del sesgo que observamos sugiere que la mayoría de las especies amenazadas también tienen la probabilidad de ser aquellas especies con las estimaciones de distribución local menos acertadas. Como corrección, probamos si la reducción de datos o la estimación de la distribución local informada por la autocorrelación minimizan el efecto de escalamiento que tiene la autocorrelación sobre las estimaciones de área. La reducción de datos requirió una pérdida de datos del ∼93% para lograr la independencia estadística con un 95% de confianza y por lo tanto no fue una solución viable. Al contrario, la estimación de la distribución local informada por la autocorrelación resultó en estimaciones constantemente precisas sin importar la masa corporal. Cuando relacionamos la masa corporal con el tamaño de la distribución local, detectamos que la corrección de la autocorrelación resultó en un exponente de escalamiento significativamente >1, lo que significa que el escalamiento de la relación cambió sustancialmente en el extremo superior del espectro de la masa corporal.

Herbicide risk assessments of non-target terrestrial plant communities: A graphical user interface for the plant community model IBC-grass.

Plants located adjacent to agricultural fields are important for maintaining biodiversity in semi-natural landscapes. To avoid undesired impacts on these plants due to herbicide application on the arable fields, regulatory risk assessments are conducted prior to registration to ensure proposed uses of plant protection products do not present an unacceptable risk. The current risk assessment approach for these non-target terrestrial plants (NTTPs) examines impacts at the individual-level as a surrogate approach for protecting the plant community due to the inherent difficulties of directly assessing population or community level impacts. However, modelling approaches are suitable higher tier tools to upscale individual-level effects to community level. IBC-grass is a sophisticated plant community model, which has already been applied in several studies. However, as it is a console application software, it was not deemed sufficiently user-friendly for risk managers and assessors to be conveniently operated without prior expertise in ecological models. Here, we present a user-friendly and open source graphical user interface (GUI) for the application of IBC-grass in regulatory herbicide risk assessment. It facilitates the use of the plant community model for predicting long-term impacts of herbicide applications on NTTP communities. The GUI offers two options to integrate herbicide impacts: (1) dose responses based on current standard experiments (acc. to testing guidelines) and (2) based on specific effect intensities. Both options represent suitable higher tier options for future risk assessments of NTTPs as well as for research on the ecological relevance of effects.

The role of active movement in fungal ecology and community assembly.

Movement ecology aims to provide common terminology and an integrative framework of movement research across all groups of organisms. Yet such work has focused on unitary organisms so far, and thus the important group of filamentous fungi has not been considered in this context. With the exception of spore dispersal, movement in filamentous fungi has not been integrated into the movement ecology field. At the same time, the field of fungal ecology has been advancing research on topics like informed growth, mycelial translocations, or fungal highways using its own terminology and frameworks, overlooking the theoretical developments within movement ecology. We provide a conceptual and terminological framework for interdisciplinary collaboration between these two disciplines, and show how both can benefit from closer links: We show how placing the knowledge from fungal biology and ecology into the framework of movement ecology can inspire both theoretical and empirical developments, eventually leading towards a better understanding of fungal ecology and community assembly. Conversely, by a greater focus on movement specificities of filamentous fungi, movement ecology stands to benefit from the challenge to evolve its concepts and terminology towards even greater universality. We show how our concept can be applied for other modular organisms (such as clonal plants and slime molds), and how this can lead towards comparative studies with the relationship between organismal movement and ecosystems in the focus.

Elevated mutation rates are unlikely to evolve in sexual species, not even under rapid environmental change.

BACKGROUND: Organisms are expected to respond to changing environmental conditions through local adaptation, range shift or local extinction. The process of local adaptation can occur by genetic changes or phenotypic plasticity, and becomes especially relevant when dispersal abilities or possibilities are somehow constrained. For genetic changes to occur, mutations are the ultimate source of variation and the mutation rate in terms of a mutator locus can be subject to evolutionary change. Recent findings suggest that the evolution of the mutation rate in a sexual species can advance invasion speed and promote adaptation to novel environmental conditions. Following this idea, this work uses an individual-based model approach to investigate if the mutation rate can also evolve in a sexual species experiencing different conditions of directional climate change, under different scenarios of colored stochastic environmental noise, probability of recombination and of beneficial mutations. The color of the noise mimicked investigating the evolutionary dynamics of the mutation rate in different habitats. RESULTS: The results suggest that the mutation rate in a sexual species experiencing directional climate change scenarios can evolve and reach relatively high values mainly under conditions of complete linkage of the mutator locus and the adaptation locus. In contrast, when they are unlinked, the mutation rate can slightly increase only under scenarios where at least 50% of arising mutations are beneficial and the rate of environmental change is relatively fast. This result is robust under different scenarios of stochastic environmental noise, which supports the observation of no systematic variation in the mutation rate among organisms experiencing different habitats. CONCLUSIONS: Given that 50% beneficial mutations may be an unrealistic assumption, and that recombination is ubiquitous in sexual species, the evolution of an elevated mutation rate in a sexual species experiencing directional climate change might be rather unlikely. Furthermore, when the percentage of beneficial mutations and the population size are small, sexual species (especially multicellular ones) producing few offspring may be expected to react to changing environments not by adaptive genetic change, but mainly through plasticity. Without the ability for a plastic response, such species may become - at least locally - extinct.

Simulation of herbicide impacts on a plant community: comparing model predictions of the plant community model IBC-grass to empirical data.

BACKGROUND: Semi-natural plant communities such as field boundaries play an important ecological role in agricultural landscapes, e.g., provision of refuge for plant and other species, food web support or habitat connectivity. To prevent undesired effects of herbicide applications on these communities and their structure, the registration and application are regulated by risk assessment schemes in many industrialized countries. Standardized individual-level greenhouse experiments are conducted on a selection of crop and wild plant species to characterize the effects of herbicide loads potentially reaching off-field areas on non-target plants. Uncertainties regarding the protectiveness of such approaches to risk assessment might be addressed by assessment factors that are often under discussion. As an alternative approach, plant community models can be used to predict potential effects on plant communities of interest based on extrapolation of the individual-level effects measured in the standardized greenhouse experiments. In this study, we analyzed the reliability and adequacy of the plant community model IBC-grass (individual-based plant community model for grasslands) by comparing model predictions with empirically measured effects at the plant community level. RESULTS: We showed that the effects predicted by the model IBC-grass were in accordance with the empirical data. Based on the species-specific dose responses (calculated from empirical effects in monocultures measured 4 weeks after application), the model was able to realistically predict short-term herbicide impacts on communities when compared to empirical data. CONCLUSION: The results presented in this study demonstrate an approach how the current standard greenhouse experiments-measuring herbicide impacts on individual-level-can be coupled with the model IBC-grass to estimate effects on plant community level. In this way, it can be used as a tool in ecological risk assessment.